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Date: Tue, 5 Jun 2001 06:50:48 -0700 (PDT)
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To: kamins@ect.enron.com
Subject: Daily Trader Summary for Tue, Jun 05, 2001
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Syncrasy - Weather for Business
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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]      Syncrasy, LL=
C?    713.228.8470 Off   713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue     Suite 1314=
      Houston, TX 77002    www.syncrasy.com      Sales:                   7=
13.228.4407   Development Offices:   970.247.4139 Off   970.247.7951 Fax   =
835 Main Avenue       Suite 221        Durango, CO 81301    =09=09 [IMAGE] =
  Complementary version of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy=
 Inc.     - If you would like to receive this product first thing in the mo=
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scribe_tradersummary@syncrasy.com         Data last updated  Tuesday, Jun 0=
5, 2001 at 08:06AM EST    Commentary last updated  Tuesday, Jun 05, 2001 at=
 08:57AM EST  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote    =
Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'     Toda=
y: Summary Forecast for Tue, Jun  5, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp=
.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (C=
lick on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  71  -1  ERCOT(SP)  89  -1=
  FRCC(SE)  88  +1  MAAC(NE)  78  +1  MAIN(CTR)  69  -1  MAPP(HP)  63  NC  =
NPCC(NE)  70  NC  SERC(SE)  86  NC  SPP(SP)  81  +1  WSCC(NW)  63  -4  WSCC=
(RK)  70  NC  WSCC(SW)  80  NC      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE=
]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   64 65 66 57 69 82 86 79  M=
ax    71 69 72 65 73 88 88 82  Min     60 61 62 52 62 78 83 74  Range  10 8=
 10 13 10 10 4 8  StD-P  2.3 2.1 3.6 4.2 2.0 3.3 1.6 1.8  Count  9 9 9 9 9 =
9 9 9    Day 1-5 Discussion:  A busy period is expected for many as the atm=
osphere is about to transition from spring to summer. Over the last several=
 days we have seen the Gulf Coast and SE states become quite humid as the f=
low has come out of the Gulf. There is some upper level energy in this regi=
on as well and the waters off the Texas and Louisiana coasts are seeing som=
e very heavy rains this morning. This tropical moisture will come ashore la=
ter today and spread NE over the next 48-72 hours. Combine that with anothe=
r cold front and upper air trough sweeping in from the Northern Plains and =
you run the risk of seeing some significant rains from the Plains Eastward =
the rest of this week. Temperatures will still run below normal on average,=
 but a brief bubble of warm air is coming North with a warm front in the Oh=
io Valley. AC usage may increase a little midweek due to the ! higher humid=
ities which will keep overnight temperatures up. Of course most of this wil=
l be swept away late this week when the cold front moves through bringing o=
ne more shot of cooler drier air from Canada for the weekend. This should n=
ot be as strong though as the last several rounds.  In the West, the recent=
 cooling trend will relax. The ridge will rebuild especially from the SW in=
to the Rockies. More heat is anticipated later this week particularly over =
the Southern half. It does not look at this time that any significant heat =
will build West to the coast, but rather remain in the interior. I also don=
't see any significant precipitation over the next 5 days. Only light amoun=
ts are expected in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies.  Tomorrow: S=
ummary Forecast for Wed, Jun  6, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   =
Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click=
 on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  72  +1  ERCOT(SP)  91  -1  FR=
CC(SE)  87  -1  MAAC(NE)  75  +1  MAIN(CTR)  70  +2  MAPP(HP)  70  +1  NPCC=
(NE)  70  NC  SERC(SE)  84  NC  SPP(SP)  83  +2  WSCC(NW)  68  -3  WSCC(RK)=
  76  -1  WSCC(SW)  86  NC      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   =
Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   67 71 65 63 77 81 86 84  Max  =
  72 77 74 69 79 86 90 87  Min     63 66 59 58 71 76 82 79  Range  9 10 15 =
11 8 10 7 8  StD-P  2.8 2.9 4.6 4.0 1.9 3.1 2.3 1.9  Count  9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9=
   Day 3: Summary Forecast for Thu, Jun  7, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Del=
ta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMA=
GE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  72  +2  ERCOT(SP) =
 92  +2  FRCC(SE)  88  +1  MAAC(NE)  69  -1  MAIN(CTR)  74  +2  MAPP(HP)  7=
3  +1  NPCC(NE)  71  +2  SERC(SE)  84  +2  SPP(SP)  85  +1  WSCC(NW)  74  -=
3  WSCC(RK)  79  -2  WSCC(SW)  88  NC      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE]=
 [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   69 74 63 70 79 79 8=
7 86  Max    74 79 70 75 82 84 91 89  Min     65 69 58 66 75 76 81 83  Rang=
e  9 10 12 9 6 8 10 5  StD-P  2.5 3.4 4.1 3.0 2.1 2.7 3.0 1.7  Count  7 7 7=
 7 7 7 7 7   Day 4: Summary Forecast for Fri, Jun  8, 2001.  Syncrasy's Cho=
ice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [=
IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  76  +4  =
ERCOT(SP)  92  +3  FRCC(SE)  88  +1  MAAC(NE)  77  +5  MAIN(CTR)  76  +2  M=
APP(HP)  75  -1  NPCC(NE)  73  +4  SERC(SE)  84  +3  SPP(SP)  85  +2  WSCC(=
NW)  77  -1  WSCC(RK)  81  -2  WSCC(SW)  86  +1      Range Standard Deviati=
on [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   71 76 65 =
71 81 78 86 84  Max    76 81 74 77 83 85 91 87  Min     66 71 62 65 78 75 8=
0 82  Range  10 10 13 12 5 9 11 5  StD-P  2.4 3.7 3.9 2.7 1.9 2.3 3.3 1.5  =
Count  6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6   Day 5: Summary Forecast for Sat, Jun  9, 2001.  Sy=
ncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAG=
E][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CT=
R)  76  +2  ERCOT(SP)  93  +3  FRCC(SE)  88  +2  MAAC(NE)  77  +3  MAIN(CTR=
)  77  NC  MAPP(HP)  77  NC  NPCC(NE)  73  +3  SERC(SE)  86  +5  SPP(SP)  8=
6  +1  WSCC(NW)  73  +2  WSCC(RK)  82  -1  WSCC(SW)  85  +3      Range Stan=
dard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean=
   70 76 64 63 77 78 83 79  Max    77 85 74 73 84 86 92 86  Min     59 58 5=
8 50 54 70 69 60  Range  18 27 16 23 30 16 23 26  StD-P  5.7 6.9 3.5 4.7 7.=
7 3.2 5.2 6.6  Count  6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6    Day 6-10 discussion:  The screamin=
g message in the models for next week is a warming trend in the East. I hav=
e heard the yelling on several occasions the last three weeks, but there se=
ems to be some support for it now. Pattern changes in the Pacific, partiucl=
arly in Asia and near Hawaii support the ridge expanding NE out of the Inte=
rmountain West next week. The question becomes one of how far East and how =
strong. They all agree the ridge expands from the Plains to the Great Lakes=
. However, the U.S. and Canadian models expand all the way to the NE while =
the European does not. The key will be where the Western U.S. trough sets u=
p. The U.S. model says its well off the coast, the others near or slightly =
inland. I have said for awhile that the next change would feature troughs n=
ear both coasts and a ridge in the middle. I see no reason to change that v=
iew for now. ! In addition, recent rains not to mention the potential for m=
ore the next several days will leave the ground moist enough to keep any ma=
jor heat from developing. Ultimately, I see next week running near normal W=
est and East and slightly above normal Central and South.  Day 6: Summary F=
orecast for Sun, Jun 10, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatili=
ty Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on imag=
e to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  74  NC  ERCOT(SP)  94  +3  FRCC(SE)  =
89  +3  MAAC(NE)  76  +1  MAIN(CTR)  78  +1  MAPP(HP)  79  +2  NPCC(NE)  72=
  NC  SERC(SE)  86  +3  SPP(SP)  87  +2  WSCC(NW)  68  +1  WSCC(RK)  82  +1=
  WSCC(SW)  83  +3      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT =
 HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   75 80 65 62 83 80 87 82  Max    80 87 =
73 68 84 86 93 84  Min     68 75 61 56 81 77 83 79  Range  12 12 12 12 3 9 =
10 4  StD-P  4.8 4.2 3.9 4.0 1.2 2.3 3.3 1.5  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day =
7: Summary Forecast for Mon, Jun 11, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp=
.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (C=
lick on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  77  +3  ERCOT(SP)  94  +2=
  FRCC(SE)  89  +1  MAAC(NE)  77  +2  MAIN(CTR)  80  +5  MAPP(HP)  77  +1  =
NPCC(NE)  72  +1  SERC(SE)  85  +1  SPP(SP)  88  +2  WSCC(NW)  69  +1  WSCC=
(RK)  77  +1  WSCC(SW)  83  +4      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE=
]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   75 78 66 60 80 81 88 80  M=
ax    79 86 74 69 82 86 92 83  Min     70 71 61 54 78 77 83 76  Range  9 15=
 12 15 4 9 9 7  StD-P  3.8 5.8 4.4 3.7 1.5 3.1 3.4 2.7  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 =
5 5   Day 8: Summary Forecast for Tue, Jun 12, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   =
Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][=
IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  80  +20  ERCOT(=
SP)  93  +5  FRCC(SE)  89  +11  MAAC(NE)  80  +17  MAIN(CTR)  79  +12  MAPP=
(HP)  75  +2  NPCC(NE)  76  +21  SERC(SE)  87  +12  SPP(SP)  88  +3  WSCC(N=
W)  70  +19  WSCC(RK)  76  +11  WSCC(SW)  82  +9      Range Standard Deviat=
ion [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   76 77 68=
 60 78 82 88 79  Max    79 83 78 70 79 87 92 82  Min     74 72 61 54 73 78 =
84 78  Range  6 11 16 16 7 8 7 4  StD-P  2.2 3.8 3.9 4.0 2.0 2.8 2.7 1.3  C=
ount  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 9: Summary Forecast for Wed, Jun 13, 2001.  Syn=
crasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE=
][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR=
)  75  +16  ERCOT(SP)  88  +1  FRCC(SE)  78  NC  MAAC(NE)  75  +17  MAIN(CT=
R)  76  +9  MAPP(HP)  73  +6  NPCC(NE)  69  +18  SERC(SE)  79  +3  SPP(SP) =
 90  +6  WSCC(NW)  64  +5  WSCC(RK)  71  +8  WSCC(SW)  78  +1      Range St=
andard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Me=
an   76 75 67 65 75 80 87 81  Max    80 80 71 67 76 82 89 85  Min     75 72=
 61 64 73 78 85 78  Range  5 8 10 3 4 4 4 7  StD-P  1.8 2.6 4.0 0.9 1.1 1.8=
 1.7 2.3  Count  4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4   Day 10: Summary Forecast for Thu, Jun 14=
, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IM=
AGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE=
]   ECAR(CTR)  75  +12  ERCOT(SP)  86  -2  FRCC(SE)  78  -2  MAAC(NE)  76  =
+18  MAIN(CTR)  73  +4  MAPP(HP)  68  NC  NPCC(NE)  69  +14  SERC(SE)  78  =
+3  SPP(SP)  84  +6  WSCC(NW)  68  +2  WSCC(RK)  71  +4  WSCC(SW)  80  -1  =
    Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE =
 SP  SW   Mean   69 64 65 57 62 76 79 70  Max    73 68 71 68 74 78 87 80  M=
in     62 58 56 45 47 73 71 59  Range  11 10 15 23 27 5 15 21  StD-P  4.1 4=
.3 5.8 10.6 12.1 2.2 7.3 10.3  Count  4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4    Trader Summary is =
designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall?=
 and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  o=
r     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]  =09
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